PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Sinner rallies from 2 sets down to win the Australian Open final from Medvedev, clinches 1st major

MELBOURNE,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Australia (AP) — Jannik Sinner lined up a forehand, drilled it down the line and dropped to the court on his back, giving himself a few moments to process how he’d come back from two sets down to win his first Grand Slam title.

The 22-year-old Sinner found a way to turn defense into attack in his first major final and take the Australian Open title from Daniil Medvedev 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 on Sunday.

It was his third straight win over a top 5 player, including his quarterfinal win over No. 5 Andrey Rublev and his semifinal upset that ended No. 1 Novak Djokovic’s long domination of the tournament. Only Djokovic and Roger Federer have done that in a major played on hard courts.

Sinner is the first Italian to win the Australian Open and the youngest winner in a men’s final here since Djokovic won his first Grand Slam title in 2008.

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With Carlos Alcaraz winning Wimbledon and Sinner winning the season-opening major, a generation shift is arriving.

“It’s been a hell of a journey,” the 22-year-old Sinner said, “even though I’m only 22.”

“It’s obviously a huge tournament for me. But I want to thank everyone for making this Slam so special.”

For 2021 U.S. Open champion Medvedev, the loss was his fifth in six major finals. The third-seeded Medvedev set a record with his fourth five-set match of the tournament and time on court at a major in the Open era, his 24 hours and 17 minutes surpassing Carlos Alcaraz’s 23:40 at the 2022 U.S. Open.

He’s also the first in the Open era to lose two Grand Slam finals in five sets after taking a 2-0 lead.

Medvedev lost back-to-back Australian Open finals — to Djokovic in 2021 and to Rafael Nadal after holding a two-set lead the following year.

He won three five-set matches to reach the championship match this year — his sixth Grand Slam final.

Sinner only dropped one set through six rounds — in a third-set tiebreaker against Djokovic — until he lost two straight to Medvedev.

It wasn’t until a break in the sixth game of the fifth set that he really had a full grip on his first Grand Slam title.

Medvedev started like a man who wanted to win quickly, after all that time spent on the court.

In two of Medvedev’s five-set matches — a second-round win over Emil Ruusuvuori that finished at almost 4 in the morning, and a 4-hour, 18-minute semifinal win over No. 6 Alexander Zverev — he had to come back from two sets down. Nobody had done that on the way to an Australian Open final since Pete Sampras in 1995.

The 27-year-old Russian had spent 20 hours and 33 minutes on court through six rounds. That was almost six hours longer than Sinner took to reach the final.

Sinner didn’t give Djokovic a look at a breakpoint as he ended the 10-time Australian Open champion’s 33-match unbeaten streak at Melbourne Park dating to 2018.

Against Medvedev, though, he was in trouble early. Medvedev broke in the third game and took the first set in 36 minutes.

He had two more service breaks in the fourth and sixth games of the second set but was broken himself at 5-1 trying to serve it out. He was successful next try.

The third set went with serve until the 10th game, when Medvedev was a point from leveling at 5-5 until three forehand errors gave Sinner the set, and the momentum.

He won the fourth set, again with a service break in the 10th game, recovering immediately to win three points after mis-hitting a forehand so far out that it shocked the Rod Laver Arena crowd.

And so the tournament equaled a Grand Slam Open era record set at the 1983 U.S. Open with a 35th match going to five sets.

In the sixth game of the fifth set, Sinner had triple breakpoint against a fatiguing Medvedev. He missed with his first chance but converted with his next, a forehand winner, for a 4-2 lead. From there, he didn’t give Medvedev another chance.

Medvedev had faced either Djokovic or Rafael Nadal in all five of his previous major finals. He beat Djokovic to win the 2021 U.S. Open title but lost all the others, including the 2021 final in Australia to Djokovic and the 2022 final — after taking the first two sets — against Nadal.

He changed up his usual style, going to the net more regularly in the first two sets and standing closer to the baseline to receive serve than he has done recently.

Medvedev has been saying through the tournament that he has more stamina than he used to, and is mentally stronger in the tough five-setters. He certainly showed incredible endurance but came up just short — again.

Medvedev won his first six matches against Sinner, but has now lost four in a row — including three finals.

“I want to congratulate Janick because today you showed it again why you deserve it,” Medvedev said. “So, winning a lot of matches and probably that’s not your last Grand Slam, but I hope I can try to get the next one if you play in the final because it’s been, what, three finals in a row!”

Medvedev also sent a message to his family in his on-court interview:

“Unfortunately I couldn’t make it today, but I’m gonna try to make it, work next time for you,” he said. “It always hurts to lose in the final, but probably being in the final is better than losing before.

“So, I guess, yeah, I have to try harder next time, but I’m proud of myself.” ___

AP tennis: https://apnews.com/hub/tennis