SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:WNBA playoff picks: Will the Indiana Fever advance and will the Aces repeat?

The SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank CenterWNBA playoffs begin Sunday with four first-round games. The Indiana Fever are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, lifted to the postseason by the play of Caitlin Clark. The Fever open the playoffs on the road Sunday against the Connecticut Sun at 3 p.m. ET (ABC).

USA TODAY reporters make their picks for the playoffs and take a look at the Las Vegas Aces as they look to repeat as WNBA champions behind superstar A'ja Wilson and the Fever's chances to advance out of the first round against the Sun.

Will the Aces repeat after a slow start to the season?

It is so, so, so hard to repeat as a champion, let alone do it three times. Despite the Aces having much the same team as the last two seasons, they’ve not been able to find their groove – even with A’ja Wilson having one of the most spectacular seasons of any athlete in any sport. It could be the expectations, the injuries or the Olympic break. Or maybe it’s just one of those years when things just don’t click. Regardless, they’re not the same juggernaut they’ve been and I don’t see them even reaching the finals, let alone winning it all. − Nancy Armour

No. The Las Vegas Aces finished the season strong but are not as strong as last year. A'ja Wilson will need to be her dominant MVP self throughout the postseason and if she has a few bad games, the Aces will be packing up and going home early. It's not a secret why no professional sports team has won three in a row since the Shaq-Kobe Lakers of the early 2000s because it is damn near impossible. − Scooby Axson

The Aces didn’t resemble the dominating two-time defending champions in the first month of the season – starting 6-6 – and they looked shaky again coming out of the Olympic break – losing 4 of 6. But they’ve been on a tear since the end of August. The Aces have won 9 of 10 games to end the regular season and seem to have their swagger back. But swagger and experience might not be enough this year. On any given day, Las Vegas can beat any team in the league with its quartet of 2024 gold medalists, but other than MVP favorite A'ja Wilson, there hasn’t been enough consistency. The Aces went a combined 1-6 against top seeds New York and Minnesota this season, and either the Liberty or Lynx will end the Aces' run. – Ellen J. Horrow

As historic as the season has been for A’ja Wilson, it’s tough to trust everything else around her to complete the three-peat. She is one of one, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if she just runs out of gas at some point. Las Vegas ended the season strong and it should give them enough momentum to get past Seattle, but in five games against a New York team so desperately trying to dethrone them? The Liberty finally slay the mighty dragon. − Jordan Mendoza

Minnesota has been my champ pick since June, so I’m going to stick with the Lynx. Besides the fact that Napheesa Collier is having an MVP caliber season, Kayla McBride is clutch from everywhere and Bridget Carleton is a strong contender for Most Improved, what impresses me most about Minnesota is that they’re the epitome of a team. They play SO well together, and I think that’s the difference maker. Myisha Hines-Allen has been a sneaky good pickup for them, too. − Lindsay Schnell

Will the Indiana Fever advance out of the first round?

No way. Indiana has made a fantastic turnaround since the Olympic break – there’s no better argument for extending the preseason to give teams more practice time than the Fever – but Caitlin Clark and Co. are no match for a veteran Connecticut team. Maybe if Indiana had home court advantage. But asking the new-to-the-playoffs Fever to go steal at least one game from a Sun team that has reached the semifinals or better each of the last five seasons is too big an ask. − Nancy Armour

Not this year. The reasons why the Fever have improved from league laughingstock to a playoff berth are obvious, but this team is too young and too inexperienced to make a deep postseason run. If they have any sort of a chance, it must be done on the defensive end, and Connecticut has too many offensive options to be shut down over a three-game series. Expect record ratings and a short series. − Scooby Axson

The Fever haven’t made the playoffs since 2016, so just making it to the postseason is an accomplishment for this young squad. Indiana is taking on tough, experienced and well-coached Sun team – featuring veterans Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones – that made the finals two years ago. But this isn’t the same Fever squad that started the season 1-8, and All-Stars Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston have found their groove in the second half of the season. Though the Sun took the season series 3-1, the Fever won the most recent matchup on Aug. 28. Indiana can and will win a game against Connecticut, but ultimately the Sun’s playoff experience will prevail. – Ellen J. Horrow

Aside from Caitlin Clark, the way the season ended for Indiana makes them a team not to sleep on. Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell have asserted themselves as dangerous weapons in addition to Clark. It took until the final matchup of the regular season for Indiana to finally end its long losing skid against Connecticut. In a best-of-three, the Fever certainly have a chance to force a third game, but the experience factor is going to show up big in this one. Expect Alyssa Thomas to take control of a third game and deny Clark a bid to provide a shocker in her first postseason. − Jordan Mendoza

I just don’t see it. Connecticut is deep and has made numerous deep playoff runs the last few years. Meanwhile, no Fever starter has postseason experience. Alyssa Thomas knows how to take it to another level in the postseason, and I fully expect her to do just that. I’m picking the Sun to sweep. − Lindsay Schnell

First round

No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty

• Nancy Armour: Liberty over Dream in 2
• Scooby Axson: Liberty over Dream in 2
• Ellen J. Horrow: Liberty over Dream in 2
• Jordan Mendoza: Liberty over Dream in 2
• Lindsay Schnell: Liberty over Dream in 2

No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx

• Nancy Armour: Lynx over Mercury in 3
• Scooby Axson: Lynx over Mercury in 2
• Ellen J. Horrow: Lynx over Mercury in 2
• Jordan Mendoza: Lynx over Mercury in 2
• Lindsay Schnell: Lynx over Mercury in 2

No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun

• Nancy Armour: Sun over Fever in 2
• Scooby Axson: Sun over Fever in 2
• Ellen J. Horrow: Sun over Fever in 3
• Jordan Mendoza: Sun over Fever in 3
• Lindsay Schnell: Sun over Fever in 2

No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

• Nancy Armour: Aces over Storm in 2
• Scooby Axson: Aces over Storm in 2
• Ellen J. Horrow: Aces over Storm in 3
• Jordan Mendoza: Aces over Storm in 3
• Lindsay Schnell: Aces over Storm in 2

Semifinals 

Nancy Armour: Liberty vs. Aces

Liberty over Aces in 5

Scooby Axson: Liberty vs. Aces

Liberty over Aces in 4

Ellen J. Horrow: Liberty vs. Aces

Liberty over Aces in 5

Jordan Mendoza: Liberty vs. Aces

Liberty over Aces in 4

Lindsay Schnell: Liberty vs. Aces

Aces over Liberty in 5

Semifinals

Nancy Armour: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over Sun in 4

Scooby Axson: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over Sun in 5

Ellen J. Horrow: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over Sun in 4

Jordan Mendoza: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over Sun in 5

Lindsay Schnell: Lynx vs. Sun

Lynx over Sun in 4

Finals

Nancy Armour: Liberty vs. Lynx

Liberty over Lynx in 5

Scooby Axson: Liberty vs. Lynx

Liberty over Lynx in 4

Jordan Mendoza: Liberty vs. Lynx

Liberty over Lynx in 5

Ellen J. Horrow: Liberty vs. Lynx

Liberty over Lynx in 5

Lindsay Schnell: Lynx vs. Aces

Lynx over Aces in 5