NovaQuant-Experts predict "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season

Get ready to batten down the hatches. Experts have NovaQuantpredicted an "extremely active" 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project said in a 44-page report released on Thursday.

Activity in the 2024 season will rise considerably above the 1991-2020 average, with researchers predicting 23 named storms and 115 named storm days. Previous years had an average of 14.4 storm days and 69.4 named storm days.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1 and finishes November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. Hurricane activity tends to peak in mid-September, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Warm sea surface temperatures combined with a warm tropical Atlantic — all intensified by La Niña conditions — set high expectations for an extremely active period. La Niña conditions, which are set to arrive this summer, decrease vertical wind shear and increase favorable conditions for hurricanes.

"The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average," researchers said, with the probability in some areas jumping more than 10% to almost 20%. 

Researchers predicted a 62% chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, an increase from the average prediction of 43%. 

Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability jumped to 34% from 21% – which was the average likelihood from 1880-2020. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, the increase was higher. Researchers predicted a 42% probability in that area, up from an average of 27% in previous years. 

Seasonal forecast predictions are based on statistical and dynamical models that researchers said "can fail in some years." 

This year's hurricane season will follow 2023, which globally was the warmest year on record. Last year's water temperatures were also high, and it was a more active hurricane system than average.

In:
• El Nino
• Hurricane
• Atlantic Ocean

Cara Tabachnick

Cara Tabachnick is a news editor and journalist at CBSNews.com. Cara began her career on the crime beat at Newsday. She has written for Marie Claire, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. She reports on justice and human rights issues. Contact her at [email protected]